Ethnic Inequality and Civil War SURJ

65 Conventional wisdom suggests ethnic inequality predicts civil war onset. Stewart suggests that when individual selfesteem is bound up with ethnic identity, ethnic inequality produces grievances that lead to mobilization and civil war. However, recent cross-national studies have been inconclusive due to methodological problems (Fearon J & Laitin D, working paper presented at APSA 1999). Although case studies suggest ethnic inequality increases rebellion by disadvantaged groups, they are not generalizable and suffer from selection bias. This paper will conduct a largesample study of cross-national ethnic inequality. First, we review the challenges in testing the impact of ethnic inequality on civil war. Next, we attempt to overcome these challenges through a large-N statistical analysis of ethnic inequality and civil war onset. We draw on an original dataset comprising surveys conducted by the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) group and research conducted by Laitin, Fearon, Kasara and myself. Finally, we examine the case of the Hutu in Rwanda in order to illustrate other variables that interfere with the impact of ethnic inequality on civil war. Our results suggest that economic disadvantages weakly predict for ethnic rebellion. However, other factors like political power and group size strongly affect observed outcomes.